[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 05-07 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 3,351 pfu at 04/1935 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (05-07 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period near 390 km/s, but began a slow and steady increase to 510 km/s by periods end. Total field ranged between 4-8 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +3 nT and -6 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the forecast period (05-07 Sep) due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to an enhancement in the solar wind.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions, with isolated periods of unsettled levels are expected on 05 Sep and most of 06 Sep. Late on 06 Sep, geomagnetic field conditions are expected to become mostly unsettled due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole. A further increase to active levels is expected on day 3 (Sep 07) as influence from the negative polarity coronal hole persists.

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