[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. New Region 2723 (S08W09, Dao/beta) emerged on the disk this period. Since its emergence midday on the 29th, the region developed leader and trailer penumbra and lengthened along its E/W axis, but remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class activity all three days (30 Sep - 02 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels during the period with a peak flux of 797 pfu observed at 29/2245 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: Normal to moderate levels are expected during the three day forecast period (30 Sep - 02 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated above background levels. Solar wind speeds trended upward throughout the the first half of the period from around 400 km/s to a peak of near 500 km/s at about 30/0200 UTC. The period ended with wind speeds near 425 km/s. Total field ranged between 2-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +5 to -4 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive sector with intermittent negative sector excursions.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at slightly enhanced levels on 30 Sep due to weak influence from the polar north extension, positive polarity CH HSS. Weak enhancements are expected to continue through days two and three (01-02 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated unsettled levels on 30 Sep and quiet to active levels on 01 Oct with periodic effects from the north polar, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are forecast on 02 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes.

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