[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the period (29 Sep - 01 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period with a peak flux of 1,591 pfu observed at 28/2120 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels throughout the forecast period (29 Sep - 01 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal environment. Wind speeds averaged near 385 km/s. Total field ranged between 3-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +5 to -7 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive orientation with a brief period of negative phi from about 29/0545-0815 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at mostly nominal conditions for days one and two of the period (29-30 Sep). Day three (01 Oct) is expected to see a SSBC and CIR ahead of anticipated CH HSS effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for days one and two (29-30 Sep) and quiet to active on day three (01 Oct) with the onset of SSBC and CIR conditions ahead of anticipated CH HSS effects.

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