[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Newly numbered Region 2724 (S08E59, Hrx/alpha) rotated onto the visible disk and produced a B2 flare at approximately 12/0150 UTC, along with an associated Type II radio sweep (est. velocity 864 km/s). Analysis of any associated CME will be accomplished once LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 12-14 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, observing a maximum flux value of 35,911 pfu at 11/1940 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels from 12-14 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began its transition to a background, ambient solar wind regime. Solar wind speed averaged around 500 km/s to begin the period, averaged near 475 km/s, and ended the period just over 400 km/s. Total field strength has remained steady between 3-5 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive orientation throughout most of the period, with isolated oscillations to the negative sector early in the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue gradually returning towards ambient conditions from 12-13 Oct as CH HSS (positive polarity) influence continues to wane. A return to a slightly enhanced solar wind environment is expected by 14 Oct with arrival of the CIR ahead of the recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 12-13 Oct as CH HSS (positive polarity) influences wane. Active conditions are likely on 14 Oct with the anticipated arrival of the CIR ahead of the recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.

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