[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2724 (S08E51, Bxo/beta) produced a B7/Sf flare at 12/1408 UTC, but was stable throughout the period. New Region 2725 (S10E66, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 13-15 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak value of 3,690 pfu observed at 12/1855 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days (13-15), with a brief decrease to moderate levels likely on 14 Oct due to a period of enhanced geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment became slightly enhanced late this period due to what appears to be an imminent solar sector boundary crossing. Total field strength values increased from around 2-4 nT early in the period to a peak of 9 nT, however, Bz was mostly northward following the mag field enhancement. Solar wind density values increased from 4 to around 15 particles per cubic cm as the period progressed and the phi angle was variable. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced late on 13 Oct through midday on 15 Oct due to a solar sector boundary followed by the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels on 13 Oct due to an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing late in the day. Periods of active conditions are expected on 14 Oct due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 Oct under waning CH HSS influence.

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