[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2725 (S10,L111) decayed to an area of plage. A disappearing solar filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 and Gong H-alpha satellite imagery from ~16/0348-0412 near S13E17. Most of the ejecta appeared to be reabsorbed, but further analysis will be accomplished once additional coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 16-18 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels, with high levels possible on 16 Oct, due to residual CH HSS influences. Moderate levels are expected on 17-18 with the CIR arrival ahead of another CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began the period near 630 km/s before beginning an unsteady, gradual decline to end the period near 530 km/s. Total field strength was steady near 4 nT, while the Bz component varied roughly between +/-4 nT. The phi angle was primarily negative.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to slowly decrease over the next three days (16-18 Oct) as the negative polarity CH HSS rotates further west and away from a geoeffective position. A CIR, ahead of an extension of the north polar CH HSS, is anticipate to arrive later on 18 Oct, and will likely cause enhancements in the solar wind environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to persistent CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 16 Oct due to continued, but weakening CH HSS influences. Primarily quiet conditions are expected on 17-18 Oct, before becoming unsettled to active in response to CIR arrival.

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