[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2725 (S07E11, Axx/alpha) exhibited redevelopment in one of its spots, but remained inactive during the period. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 17-19 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 1,323 pfu at 16/2000 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels on 17-18 Oct due to CH HSS influences. Normal to high levels are expected on 19 Oct due to effects associated with the CIR arrival.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning influences of the isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from around 530 km/s to near 430 km/s by periods end. Total field strength was steady around 4 to 5 nT, while the Bz component underwent weak deviations between +/-4 nT. The phi angle was negative until just before 17/0200 UTC when it began oscillating between positive and negative sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is anticipated to continue decreasing under waning negative polarity CH HSS influence on 17-18 Oct. The effects of the CIR arrival ahead of a positive polarity extension of the north polar CH HSS is likely to cause enhancements in the solar wind environment on 19 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 17 Oct. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 18 Oct, increasing to unsettled to active conditions on 19 Oct in response to effects associated with CIR arrival and flanking influences of the CH HSS. There is also a chance for G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 19 Oct, depending on the interaction of the positive polarity CH HSS.

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