[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Nov 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Nov 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 05-07 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels levels on 05-06 Nov with high levels likely on 07 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the passage of a SSBC, followed by the onset of a CIR ahead of positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from 350 km/s at 04/1223 to a peak of 631 km/s at 05/0508 UTC. Total field reached a peak of 16 nT at 04/2225 UTC and Bz dropped to a low value of -12 nT at 04/2129 UTC. Phi transitioned to a predominantly positive sector after 04/1020 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced from 05-06 Nov due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to trend back towards near-background levels on 07 Nov as influence from the CH HSS is expected to slowly wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels at 05/0517 UTC. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed at 04/2059 UTC, 04/2127 UTC, 05/0454 UTC, 05/0737 UTC, and 05/1045 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 05 Nov due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Waning CH HSS effects are likely to produce active conditions on 06 Nov and unsettled levels on 07 Nov.

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