[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Nov 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Nov 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the disk remained spotless. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (06-08 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 3,130 pfu at 05/2040 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels all three days (06-08 Nov) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed decreased from 535 km/s to averages near 470 km/s. Total field strength decreased to 4 nT. The Bz component was mostly southward but at nominal values. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on day one (06 Nov) as the influences of the positive polarity CH HSS continue, but decrease as the CH HSS rotates further westward. Day two (07 Nov) should see continuing decline and a return towards more ambient-background like conditions as the CH HSS rotates away from a geoeffective position. A slow solar wind regime is expected by day three (08 Nov).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to ongoing CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with likely periods of active conditions on day one (06 Nov), due to weakening CH HSS effects. Day two (07 Nov) is expected to experience quiet to unsettled conditions as CH HSS effects wane. Day three (08 Nov) is expected to be primarily quiet.

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