[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Nov 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Nov 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 07-09 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, with a maximum flux of 7,690 pfu at 06/2140 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 07-08 Nov. 09 Nov is expected to see a transition from high to normal levels due to effects associated with an anticipated CIR arrival ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters weakened to nominal levels. Total field averaged near 5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4. Solar wind speeds decreased to 400 km/s. Phi was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain nominal through 08 Nov. The solar wind environment is likely to become enhanced on 09 Nov due to the influences of an arriving CIR ahead of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 07 Nov. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 08 Nov. 09 Nov is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a likely late period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions due to effects associated with the arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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