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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Nov 19 0314 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 November 2018
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2726 (N05, L=137, class/area Axx/010 on 13 Nov) was inactive and decayed to plage 15 Nov. Region 2727 (N01, L=112, class/area Cao/060 on 18 Nov) showed slight growth, but remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 12-16 Nov and moderate levels on 17-18 Nov.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels, with a isolated periods of unsettled conditions observed early on 12 Nov. Solar wind speeds were elevated 12-13 Nov due to a negative polarity CH HSS. Peak speeds of 638 km/s occurred on 12 Nov at approximately 1936 UTC, and decreased over the course of the week, reaching a minimum of 298 km/s by 17/2326 UTC. 14-17 Nov were unremarkable under a nominal solar wind regime. The solar wind environment underwent a slight enhancement on 18 Nov due to CIR arrival ahead of a negative polarity CH. Total field became enhanced to 8 nT and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT by the end of the day. Wind speeds increased to around 330 km/s and density increased to a peak of 20 particles per cubic cm.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 November - 15 December 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the forecast period (19 Nov-15 Dec). Region 2727 (N05, L=137) will exit the solar disk on 21 Nov, and pending decay, is due to return on 04 Dec.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at moderate levels 19 Nov-1 Dec. Predominately high levels are likely 2 Dec-13 Dec due to a pair of recurrent CH HSSs. Moderate levels are likely 14-15 Dec as CH HSS influence wanes.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels 19-22 Nov due to a pair of negative polarity CH HSSs. Predominately quiet levels are expected 23-30 Nov under nominal solar wind conditions. Active conditions are expected on 01 Dec due to a SSBC ahead of a recurrent positive polarity CH. G1 (Minor) storming is likely 02 Dec due to the CIR in advance of the HSS of the aforementioned positive polarity CH. Unsettled conditions are expected 03-06 Dec as CH HSS influence wanes. Active conditons are likely 07-08 Dec due to HSS influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH. Mostly unsettled conditions, with a chance of active intervals, is expected 09 Dec as the negative polarity CH HSS influence wanes. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2018 Nov 19 16:10 UTC]()
Live data and images: SunSpotWatch.com
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