[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Nov 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Nov 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2727 (N01W77) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels all three days (20-22 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased from moderate to normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels all three days (20-22 Nov) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became enhanced and disturbed midway through the period. Total IMF strength increased and peaked at 12 nT before it decreased to later period values of 5 to 7 nT. The Bz component underwent a few periods of pronounced southward direction in conjunction with the total field strength intensification. Solar wind speed began to increase midway through the period and reached around 435 km/s. The phi angle shifted from positive to negative midway through the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue experiencing periods of mild enhancements on days one and two (20-21 Nov) due to weak influences of a negative polarity CH HSS. Near background conditions are anticipated on day three (22 Nov) as the CH HSS becomes less influential on the near-Earth environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an unsettled period during the 20/0300-0600 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (20-21 Nov) due to weak negative polarity CH HSS influences. A return to mostly quiet responses is anticipated for day three (22 Nov) as ambient-background conditions return.

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