[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 4-6 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on day one (4 Dec) following CH HSS activity. Normal flux levels are expected on days two and three (5-6 Dec) in response to the the anticipated arrival of the 30 Nov CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to the arrival of a CIR in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period due to CH HSS influence and the possible combined effects with the arrival of a slow moving CME from 30 Nov late on day one (4 Dec) and waning into day three (6 Dec).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels in response to CH HSS effects and the possible arrival of the 30 Nov CME late on day one (4 Dec). The full magnetic response from the slow moving CME, if a glancing blow does occur, would likely be later on day two (5 Dec). A G1-minor storm watch was has been issued for 5 Dec. with a peak Kp of 5 expected. A return to unsettled to active conditions is forecast for day three (6 Dec).

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