[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A new spot group was numbered during the period, Region 2729 (S05W28, Bxo/beta) and was void of notable activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 5-7 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 5 Dec following CH HSS activity. Normal flux levels are expected on 6 Dec in delayed response to the the anticipated arrival of the 30 Nov CME. Moderate to high levels are possible on 7 Dec as the possible CME effects persist. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to waning effects from a positive polarity CH HSS rotating around the west limb.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period (5-7 Dec) due to CH HSS influence, and the possible combined effects with the arrival of a slow moving CME from 30 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be agitated in response to CH HSS effects and the possible arrival of the 30 Nov CME. The full magnetic response from the slow moving CME, if a glancing blow does occur, would likely be later on 5 Dec. A G1-minor storm watch was has been issued for 5 Dec, with a peak Kp of 5 likely. A return to unsettled to active conditions is forecast for 6 and 7 Dec.

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