[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 10-12 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 10-12 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 550-670 km/s. Total magnetic field strength decreased from 11 nT to near 5 nT early in the period. Bz breifly reached -6 nT around 09/2030 UTC. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue on 10 Dec due to persistent CH HSS influence. A return to nominal levels is expected over 11 Dec. By mid to late on 12 Dec, another negative polarity CH HSS is likely to cause a much weaker enhancement to the solar wind environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to continued CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 10 Dec due to persistent CH HSS effects. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 11 Dec. Isolated unsettled conditions are likely on 12 Dec due to the anticipation of a weak enhancement from a small, negative polarity CH HSS.

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