[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 11-13 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels, reaching a peak flux of 1,018 pfu at 2055 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 11-13 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from near 600 to 550 km/s. Total field strength remained around 5 nT during the period. Bz ranged between +/- 4 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: A return to nominal levels is expected over 11 Dec. By mid to late on 12 Dec, another negative polarity CH HSS is likely to cause a much weaker enhancement to the solar wind environment, which will continue into 13 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 11 Dec. Isolated unsettled conditions are likely on 12-13 Dec due to the anticipation of a weak enhancement from a small, negative polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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