[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. A region of emerging flux was observed near the NE limb and will be monitored for further development. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 14-16 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from moderate to high levels reaching a peak flux of 2,120 pfu at 13/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 14-15 Dec, and moderate levels on 16 Dec due to CIR effects ahead of a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mostly nominal solar wind conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 350-425 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Nominal levels are expected for 14-15 Dec. A slightly enhanced solar wind environment is likely on 16 Dec due to possible negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 14-15 Dec. Unsettled conditions, with a chance of an isolated active period, are expected on 16 Dec due to anticipated, negative polarity CH HSS effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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