[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2731 was mostly plage with a few fleeting pores by the end of the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 15-17 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from moderate to high levels reaching a peak flux of 2,387 pfu at 14/1920 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15 Dec, and moderate levels on 16 Dec due to weak CIR effects ahead of a CH HSS. Moderate to high levels are expected to return on 17 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Bt was at or below 5 nT and Bz was mostly positive. Solar wind speeds ranged between 300-390 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Nominal levels are expected for 15 Dec. A slightly enhanced solar wind environment is likely on 16-17 Dec due to weak negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 15 Dec. Unsettled conditions, with a chance of an isolated active period, are likely on 16-17 Dec due to anticipated, weak CH HSS influence.

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