[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 17-19 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from moderate to high levels reaching a peak flux of 1,430 pfu at 16/2020 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 17-19 Dec while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 12 nT around 17/0645 UTC. The Bz component was mostly northward with brief southward rotations no further than -5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from near 300 at the beginning of the period to 435 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector with brief rotations to the positive sector near 17/0500 UTC and 17/0700 UTC.

Forecast: Continued enhancement in the solar wind environment is expected on 17 Dec due to weak negative polarity CH HSS effects. A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on 18-19 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 17 Dec due to weak CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 18-19 Dec.

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