[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 18-20 Dec due to the lack of spotted active regions.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Dec, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were indicative of weak CH HSS influences. Total field strength ranged from 3 nT to 8 nT, the Bz component ranged from -5 nT to 6 nT, and the solar wind speed averaged near 435 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to decrease on 18 Dec due to waning influences of a negative polarity CH HSS. By 19 Dec, a minor enhancement in the the solar wind environment is likely, due to weak, grazing influences of another isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Weakening influences of the CH HSS are expected on 20 Dec as it begins rotating away from a partially geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 18-19 Dec, with isolated unsettled periods on 19 Dec, due to the anticipated minor disturbance in the solar wind environment. A return to quiet conditions is expected on 20 Dec as any CH HSS influences weaken.

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