[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued to be very low with no spots present on the visible disk. Coronal dimming was observed twice just north of former spot group Region 2731 (N13W28); the first at approximately 19/1200 UTC and the second around 20/0025 UTC. However, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery from either event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low for 20-22 Dec due to lack of notable active regions and spot groups.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 20-22 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background values.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total field strength began the period near 9 nT but decreased to average between 3 to 8 nT throughout most of the day. The Bz component fluctuated between +/- 6 nT, and the phi angle remained mostly negative. Solar wind speed began the period near 485 km/s, reached a peak of 662 km/s at 20/0741 UTC, before ending the period near 570 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is likely to decrease, but remain slightly enhanced on 20 Dec due to lingering CH HSS influences. A return to more ambient-background like conditions is expected for 21-22 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled on 20 Dec, with mostly quiet conditions expected for 21-22 Dec as CH HSS influence wanes.

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