[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Dec 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Dec 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low 27-29 Dec due to a lack of spot groups or active regions.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels 27-29 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of an ambient, background solar wind regime. Total field strength averaged 3 to 4 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed began the period around 350 km/s, and ended near 315 km/s. The phi angle was predominately in a negative sector, with occasional oscillations into the positive sector.

Forecast: Background conditions are anticipated to continue on 27 Dec. An approaching CIR, ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS, is expected to result in a minor enhancement in solar wind parameters on 28 Dec. An increase in solar wind speed on 29 Dec is expected with CH HSS onset.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain predominantly quiet on 27 Dec under the ambient, background-like solar wind field. CIR effects, followed by CH HSS onset, are expected to result in quiet to unsettled conditions on 28 Dec. Conditions are likely to see isolated periods active levels by 29 Dec.

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