[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2733 (N07E15, Cro/beta) displayed signs of penumbral consolidation in its leader during the period but was absent of significant flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare, throughout the forecast period (23-25 Jan) due to the presence of Region 2733.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 23-24 Jan, and increase to normal to high levels on 25 Jan due to CH HSS influence.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters from the DSCOVR spacecraft reflected slightly enhanced conditions. Total field peaked at 8 nT while the Bz component dropped to a low value of -8 nT at 23/0842 UTC. Density measurements began to increase at approximately 23/1100 UTC. Wind speed maximum for the period was 397 km/s at 23/1200 UTC. Phi angle was variable but ended the summary period in a positive orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected throughout the forecast period (23-25 Jan) due to CH HSS effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the remainder of day one (23 Jan) due to CIR effects in advance of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on day two (24 Jan) in response to CH HSS arrival. Day three (25 Jan), unsettled to active conditions are expected as a result of persistent CH HSS influence.

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