[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low as Region 2733 (N06E01, Cro/beta) underwent only minor changes and remained stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (24-26 Jan) due primarily to the weak flare potential of Region 2733.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels all three days (24-26 Jan) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of CIR arrival and CH HSS onset. The Bz component was variable, with a few periods of prolonged or pronounced southward deflections. Solar wind speed underwent a steady increase, reaching around the 600 km/s mark by the periods end. The phi angle oscillated between sectors, but was predominantly in a positive orientation.

Forecast: The influences of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS are expected to continue all three days (24-26 Jan), with some waning effects beginning by day three.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, in reaction to CIR arrival and early stage CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on day one (24 Jan) due to CH HSS effects. Day two (25 Jan) is expected to see responses of quiet to active as CH HSS influences continue. Day three (26 Jan) is expected to be quiet to unsettled as CH HSS influences wanes.

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