[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2733 (N06W27, Dai/beta) produced numerous B-class flares throughout the period with the largest, a B4 flare observed at 25/2127 UTC. The region displayed signs of spot development and penumbral consolidation in its leader. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares, over the next three days (26-28 Jan) due to Region 2733.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,408 pfu observed at 25/1845 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 26-28 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed declined from approximately 600 km/s to around 500 km/s by the periods end. Total field was at or below 6 nT while Bz reached as far south as -5 nT. Phi angle was primarily positive.

Forecast: Influence from the positive polarity CH HSS is expected to slowly wane during the remainder of 26 Jan. A return to mostly ambient conditions is expected by 27-28 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jan) as influence from the CH HSS wanes. Mostly quiet levels are expected on days two and three (27-28 Jan).

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