[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2733 (N06W40, Dso/beta) produced a C5 flare at 26/1322 UTC, the strongest of the period. Consolidation and minor growth was observed in the leader spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares, over the next three days (27-29 Jan) due to activity from Region 2733.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 2,053 pfu observed at 26/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 27-29 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. No significant periods of negative Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from around 480 km/s to under 450 km/s by the periods end. Phi was oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Influence from the positive polarity CH HSS is expected to transition to nominal conditions on 27 Jan and remain nominal through 29 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one through three (27-29 Jan).

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