[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Jan 28 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Jan 28 0141 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 January 2019

Solar activity was at low levels due to a C5 X-ray flare observed at 26/1322 UTC from Region 2733 (N05, L=261, class/area Dso/090 on 27 Jan). Region 2733 emerged on the disk on 22 Jan as a C group, and slowly grew in area and spot count through 27 Jan. The region produced numerous B-class flares in addition to the lone C-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 21-24 Jan, increasing to moderate to high levels due to CH HSS effects.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to active levels with an isolated G1 (Minor) storm interval. The period began with quiet conditions under a nominal solar wind regime. An enhancement in solar wind parameters was observed beginning early on 23 Jan through midday 26 Jan with an increase in total field to a peak of 11 nT late on 25 Jan and a noticeable southward turning of the Bz component to -8 nT midday on 23 Jan. Wind speeds increased from about 340 km/s to peak at about 640 km/s midday on 24 Jan. During this time frame, the geomagnetic field responded with mostly unsettled to active levels, with an isolaed G1 (Minor) storm interval observed late on 24 Jan. By late on 26 Jan though 27 Jan, quiet levels were observed under a mostly nominal wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 January - 23 February 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for low levels through 31 Jan due to the presence of Region 2733. Very low levels are expected from 01-23 Feb. However, a chance for low levels exists upon the return of old Region 2733 on or about 12 Feb.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 28 Jan - 11 Feb and again on 21-23 Feb due to CH HSS influence. Mostly normal levels are expected on 12-20 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 31 Jan - 02 Feb and 19-22 Feb with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on 01 Feb and 20 Feb, all due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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