[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels during the period. Region 2733 (N04W71, Cao/beta) produced a C1 flare at 29/1034 UTC, as well as several B-class flares, as it continued to decay and rotate towards the western limb. Three CMEs were noted in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery, moving away from the east limb. All three appeared to be moving away from the Earth, with no impacts expected. SDO AIA/171 imagery also observed some movement in the magnetic field lines just south of Region 2733. As of this summary, no CME signatures have appeared in coronagraph imagery, but a more in-depth analysis will be accomplished as imagery fills in. At this time, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance of C-class flares over the next three days (29-31 Jan), as Region 2733 continues to make its way around the western limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,390 pfu at 28/1845 UTC, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 29-30 Jan, then decrease to normal to moderate levels on 31 Jan due to CIR effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect nominal conditions. Total field strength averaged near 3 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 3 nT. Solar wind speed decreased from near 400 km/s at the beginning of the period, to just over 350 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle remained mostly positive until the last few hours of the period, when it switched to a negative orientation.

Forecast: Background solar wind conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of 29 Jan. A minor enhancement may take place on 30 Jan, due to an anticipated CIR ahead of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Additional enhancements in the solar wind are expected on 31 Jan as the CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the remainder of 29 Jan. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30-31 Jan, with isolated periods of active conditions likely on 31 Jan, due to CIR arrival and early stages of CH HSS onset.

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