[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a C2 flare at 29/2129 UTC, a C5 flare at 30/0611 UTC, and a C1 flare at 30/1124 UTC. Region 2733 (N04W82, Cao/beta) continued to be active throughout the period, despite its continued slow decaying trend.

As of this summary, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. However, at approximately 30/0636 UTC, initial indications of a CME were observed in LASCO C2 imagery, propagating off the west limb. Only a few images were available, so analysis was limited. Additional analysis will be accomplished as imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 30 Jan-1 Feb, with a chance of C-class flares on 30-31 Jan, as Region 2733 continues to rotate around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux maintained moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Jan-1 Feb, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected persistent background conditions. Total field strength remained steady near 2 nT as the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased further, dropping to less than 300 km/s, and the phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: An enhancement in the solar wind environment is likely by the end of 30 Jan or beginning of 31 Jan, as an anticipated CIR arrives ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Further enhancements are likely by 01 Feb as the CH HSS moves into a more favorable geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the remainder of 30 Jan. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 31 Jan, with isolated active periods likely, in response to CIR arrival and early CH HSS onset. By 01 Feb, unsettled to active conditions are expected, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm levels likely, due to continued CH HSS effects.

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