[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2733 (N04,L264) produced several B-class flares as it rotated around the west limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, on 31 Jan as Region 2733 still poses a threat, just beyond the west limb. Solar activity is expected to be very low on 01-02 Feb under a spotless disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a peak of 1,563 pfu at 30/2000 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the remainder of 31 Jan, and moderate levels 01-02 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected mostly background conditions through the first half of the period. Just after 31/0000 UTC, density began to rise, accompanied by a gradual increase in wind speeds. At approximately 31/0330 UTC, a SSBC was observed. The phi angle moved from positive to negative, an enhancement was observed in total field strength, and the Bz component shifted to mostly negative. All indications of the arrival of the anticipated CIR.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is likely to see additional enhancements throughout 31 Jan as the CIR transitions to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Elevated conditions are likely to continue into 01 Feb as the CH HSS effects persist. Influence from the CH HSS is expected to begin to wane on 02 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels likely, on 31 Jan-01 Feb due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected 02 Feb as aforementioned HSS influence begins to wane.

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