[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 04-06 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 13,891 pfu observed at 03/2040 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 04-06 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced this period under weakening negative polarity CH HSS effects. Winds speeds began the period elevated at about 550 km/s, but steadily decreased to end the period approaching 400 km/s. Total field and the Bz component were at nominal levels while the phi angle remained in a predominately negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced again on 05 Feb due to the onset of another negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with an isolated unsettled interval.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 04 Feb as the current CH HSS continues to wanes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 05 Feb with quiet to unsettled conditions expected on 06 Feb in response to the influence of another negative polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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