[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 05-07 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,980 pfu observed at 04/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 05-07 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced this period under weakening negative polarity CH HSS effects. Winds speeds began the period elevated at about 425 km/s, but steadily decreased to end the period around 375 km/s. Total field remained steady near 5 nT, and the Bz component underwent a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced again on 05 Feb due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS, and should begin to wane to nominal levels over 06-07 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast:

Unsettled to active conditions are expected 05 Feb in response to an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected 06 Feb as the negative polarity CH HSS influence begins to wane. Quiet conditions are expected 07 Feb with the return of an ambient, background solar wind environment.

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