[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 06-08 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,970 pfu observed at 05/1920 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 06 Feb and moderate levels on 07-08 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind environment. Wind speeds were between 350 and 450 km/s. Total field ranged from 3 to 8 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 7 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at mostly nominal levels until late on 07 Feb, as CIR effects ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS become geoeffective. Parameters will remain enhanced 08 Feb as CH HSS influence continues.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast:

Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 06 Feb. Unsettled conditions, with a chance of an isolated active period, are expected 07 Feb due to CIR effects of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected 08 Feb as CH HSS influence continues.

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