[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 11-13 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,670 pfu observed at 10/1920 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 11-13 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly elevated through the first half of the period under waning CH HSS influence. Winds speeds ranged between 400 to 450 km/s through about 11/0000 UTC, but declined to end the period near 375 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels for the remainder of 11 Feb, but become enhanced on 12-13 Feb under the anticipated influence of a negative polarity, south-polar connected CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected to persist for the remainder of 11 Feb with the return of a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 12-13 Feb due to the influence of a negative polarity, south polar-connected CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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