[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 12-14 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 1,890 pfu at 11/1445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to be at normal to high levels on 12-14 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed averaged near 380 km/s. Total field and the Bz component were at benign values. Phi was mostly in a negative orientation.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is expected to continue on 12 Feb. The southern, pole-connected CH HSS is expected to cause enhanced conditions for 13-14 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 Feb. Quiet to active levels are expected on 13 Feb due to CIR/CH HSS onset. 14 Feb is expected to see quiet to unsettled levels due to continued influences from the CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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