[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 13-15 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to be at normal to high levels on 13-15 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced at the end of the period. Solar wind speed increased from near 380 km/s to 450 km/s. Total field increased to 9 nT, while the Bz component was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT. Phi was mostly in a negative orientation.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is expected to continue through most of 13 Feb. The southern, pole-connected CH HSS is expected to cause enhanced conditions late on 13 Feb and through 14-15 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated period of active levels at 13/09-12 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels on 13 Feb. Quiet to active levels are expected on 14 Feb due to CH HSS influences. 15 Feb is expected to see quiet to unsettled levels due to continued influences from the CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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