[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 19-21 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 19-20 Feb with a chance for high levels on 21 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speeds were relatively flat around 350 km/s. Total field was generally less than 5 nT, and the Bz component underwent only minor deviations. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative solar sector.

Forecast: A recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to arrive late on 19 Feb/early on 20 Feb. CH HSS effects are expected to last through 21 Feb. Solar wind speed is likely to be in the 450-500 km/s range based on STEREO A data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 19-20 Feb as a result of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 21 Feb.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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