[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with no numbered regions on the visible disk. A filament eruption was noted near N03W06 starting around 20/0401 UTC. Analysis of this event in available imagery suggests the bulk of the material was either re-absorbed or directed off the NE limb. A model run was submitted to rule out an Earth-directed component, and results will become available by the next forecast cycle. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 20-22 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 20-21 Feb with a chance for high levels on 22 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds averaged around 320 km/s. Total field was less than 5 nT, and the Bz component was unremarkable. Phi angle was mainly oriented in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by mid to late day on 20 Feb due to the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. HSS effects are expected to persist into 21 Feb and slowly wane on 22 Feb. Solar wind speed is likely to be in the 450-500 km/s range based on STEREO A data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 20-21 Feb due to the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Feb as HSS effects diminish.

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