[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 21 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was very low with no numbered regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 21-23 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 21 Feb. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 22-23 Feb, with a chance for high levels on 23 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from around 300 km/s to 450 km/s, and total field strength peaked around 12 nT. Bz reached a maximum southward deviation of -9 nT. Phi angle transitioned from a negative to a positive orientation with the initial onset of the CH HSS.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced 21 Feb under the influence of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are expected to wane over the course of 22-23 Feb as the positive polarity CH rotates out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 21 Feb with a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Feb. An isolated active period is also possible on 22 Feb. Mostly quiet levels are anticipated on 23 Feb as HSS effects diminish.

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