[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Mar 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Mar 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Newly numbered Region 2735 (N03E23, Bxo/beta) exhibited most of its development in the leader spot while the trailer spot ended the period in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (18-20 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Mar and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a return to nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a peak of 9 nT to at or below 5 nT after 18/0255 UTC. Bz was predominantly positive. Solar wind speeds declined from around 400 km/s to near 350 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle transitioned from the positive sector to the negative sector over the last half of the reporting period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to continue at ambient levels on 18-19 Mar. On 20 Mar, enhanced conditions are anticipated due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field mostly quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (18-19 Mar). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (20 Mar) due to anticipated influence from a recurrent CH HSS.

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