[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Mar 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Mar 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2735 (N03E11, Cro/beta) showed minor growth in the leading spot group, and was responsible for weak B-level X-ray enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (19-21 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Mar and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced late in the period. Total field increased to 6 nT, and the Bz component reached a southward deflection of -5 nT. Density increased to a peak of 24.16 particles per cubic cm at approximately 0823 UTC, and wind speeds increased from around 330 km/s to 380 km/s. The phi angle was predominately negative, but ended the period in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to continue to undergo enhancement over the course of 19 Mar due to a SSBC and subsequent CIR. On 20 Mar, enhanced conditions are anticipated to continue due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Near-background levels are expected again by 21 Mar.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods, on day one (19 Mar). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (21 Mar) due to anticipated influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels are expected again on 21 Mar with a return to background solar wind conditions.

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