[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Apr 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Apr 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (24-26 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 24-25 Apr with a chance for high levels on 26 Apr due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels. A SSBC occured at approximately 23/1823 UTC when the phi angle switched from a positive orientation to negative. Density increased to a peak of 25.89 particles per square cm, but has since returned to background levels. Total field also increased around this time to 10 nT, and the Bz component underwent a southward deflection of -9 nT. Wind speeds also saw a marginal increase from around 350-370 km/s to 400-420 km/s after the aforementioned SSBC.

Forecast: Late on 24 Apr to early on 25 Apr, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to enhance the solar wind. Solar wind speeds in the 500-600 km/s range is likely based on STEREO A data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with an isolated active period being likely, are expected on 24 Apr due to CIR effects in the solar wind environment. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 25 Apr due to CH HSS influences. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected 26 Apr as CH HSS influence wanes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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