[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Apr 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Apr 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (25-27 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 25 Apr with a chance for high levels on 26-27 Apr due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels over the majority of the period, but have become slightly enhanced during the latter half of the period to vaules avereraging near 420 km/s. Total field has also undergone slight enhancement, averaging between 5-7 nT while the Bz component has only gone brief, weak deflections. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: A negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective on 25 Apr causing an enhancement in solar wind parameters. Solar wind speeds in the 500-600 km/s range are likely, based on STEREO A data. CH HSS influence is expected to slowly diminish on 26-27 Apr.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are expected on 25 Apr due with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 26 Apr as HSS influences slowly diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 27 Apr.

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