[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2740 (N07W34, Hrx/alpha) exhibited gradual decay over the past 24 hours while Region 2741 (N05E04, Hkx/alpha) remained stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 12-14 May, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 7,580 pfu at 11/2345 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 12-14 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue unchanged at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested waning influence from the trailing end of a transient feature. Total magnetic field strength declined from 10 nT at the beginning of the period to around 7 nT by the periods end. The Bz component was primarily negative, reaching a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT around 12/1200 UTC. Solar wind speeds were steady between 330-360 km/s.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to reflect continued transient influence on days one and two (12-13 May). Near background solar wind conditions are likely to return on day three (14 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to transient effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reached active levels on 12 May and decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 13 May as effects from the CME wane. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 14 May.

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