[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 May 13 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 May 13 0226 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 May 2019

Solar activity was at low levels on 06, 07, and 09 May due to C-class flare activity from Region 2740 (N08, L=307 class/area Dho/280 on 05 May. The largest of the flares was a C9.9/1N at 06/0510 UTC. Mutliple eruptions were observed in coronagraph imagery, but only the halo CME from 06 May was geoeffective. The assymetric halo CME was first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2348 UTC. Additionally, a partial halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/2036 UTC and is determined to be Earth-directed and arrive at Earth on 17 May. Solar activity was at very low levels for the remainder of the summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 07, 11, and 12 May. Normal to moderate levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 11 May due to the arrival of a CME from 06 May. Impact was first observed by the DSCOVR spacecraft at 10/1655 UTC. Total reached a peak of 12 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -11 nT. Solar wind averaged near 350 km/s throughout tranient passage. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed during the 11/00-03 UTC synoptic period, with several active periods during the remainder of the UT day. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 May - 08 June 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance of C-class flares throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 13-23 May, and 29 May - 08 June. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 24-28 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 15 and 17 May due to CME arrival. Active conditions are expected on 29 May due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

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