[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2741 (N05W10, Hsx/alpha) was mostly stable and Region 2740 (N08W48, Hrx/alpha) was in gradual decay. A B3 flare, from Region 2741, at 12/2251 UTC was the strongest of the period.

A DSF, approximately 10 degrees in length and centered near N05W05, was observed erupting after 12/1900 UTC. A subsequent partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 12/2024 UTC. Initial WSA-Enlil model output suggested arrival of the CME on 16 May. The models arrival timing is subject to increased uncertainty as multiple CMEs are currently suspected on the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 May, with a slight chance for isolated C-class flares.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 13,216 pfu at 12/1915 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 13-15 May in response to transient influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue unchanged at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, remained slightly enhanced. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 6-9 nT. The Bz component briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT as 13/0857 UTC. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 310-360 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to reflect near-background conditions on days one and two (13-14 May). Enhancements in all solar wind parameters are likely on day three (15 May) as CMEs from the 10 May and 11 May are expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 13-14 May. An increase in geomagnetic activity will likely exceed G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 15 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 10 May and 11 May CMEs.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation