[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 14 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2740 (N08W61, Axx/alpha) continued to exhibit decay and was inactive, and Region 2741 (N06W24, Hsx/alpha) remained unchanged.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 14-16 May, due to the persistent, yet diminishing flare probabilities of Regions 2740 and 2741.

The CME associated with the coronal dimming south of Region 2741, mentioned in the previous discussion, was analyzed during the period. Although there is likely an Earth-directed component, initial analysis indicates it is likely to reach Earth at roughly the same time as the CME that is anticipated to arrive mid to late in the day on 16 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 13,500 at 13/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels again on 14 May, and decrease to normal to high levels on 15-16 May, due to CME arrival-related effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period slightly enhanced. Wind speeds increased from approximately 320 km/s to near 500 km/s, total field increased to 13 nT, and the Bz component observed a southward deflection of -10 nT.

At approximately 14/0301 UTC, the DSCOVR spacecraft observed the likely arrival of a CME that departed the Sun on 10 May. In reaction to the CME arrival, the Bz component began a period of sustained southward deflection near -15 nT, total field strength increased slightly to 15 nT, and wind speeds increased further to nearly 550 km/s. Phi angle oscillated between positive and negative orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to return to a less enhanced state during the latter half of 14 May. The arrival of a pair of CMEs from 10-11 May is anticipated on 15 May, with the arrival of a third CME (from 12 May) expected on 16 May. Additional enhancements in the solar wind environment are possible on 16 May as the CME from 13 May is anticipated to arrive nearly coincidental with, or shortly after, the CME from 12 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled to begin the period. At 14/0132 UTC, the geomagnetic field increased to active conditions, followed by G1 (Minor) conditions at 14/0512 UTC. G2 (Moderate) storm levels were then reached at 14/0545 UTC, followed by a period of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels at 14/0859 UTC, all likely attributed to the CME arrival mentioned above.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to see conditions return to quiet to unsettled conditions, with possible active levels, for the remainder of 14 May. G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) conditions, are expected with the anticipated arrival of the 10-11 May CMEs on 15 May. The subsequent arrival of the 12 and 13 May CMEs is anticipated for 16 May. Periods of G1, and an increased chance for G2 levels of activity are likely for 16 May.

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