[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2740 (N08W74, Axx/alpha) decayed to a single, barely visible spot. Region 2741 (N06W37, Hsx/alpha) remained quiescent. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (15-17 May), with a slight chance for C-class flares on days one and two while Region 2740 is still present on the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased to normal to moderate levels due to CME arrival effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained unchanged at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to vary from normal to high levels all three days (15-17 May) due to recent elevated solar wind speeds and CME interaction. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced, yet was trending towards a return to background conditions. The lingering enhancements are likely due to CME and possible CIR influences as well as a possible, short lived south polar CH HSS connection. Following a brief decrease to around 3 nT early, total field strength rebounded to average near 9 nT for most of the period. The Bz component began the period mostly southward before becoming mostly northward after 14/1900 UTC, reaching a maximum value near 10 nT. Solar wind speed began the period near 540 km/s, but exhibited a gradual decline to values near 420 km/s by periods end. The phi angle was predominantly negative throughout the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to see enhancements in nearly all parameters again on day one (15 May) with the anticipated arrival of the CME events from late on 10 May. Later on day two (16 May) another CME observed on 12 May is expected to arrive, further enhancing solar wind parameters. Early on day three (17 May), the CME observed on 13 May is expected to effect the environment and cause another disturbance in the solar wind field.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to residual CME and CH HSS effects, but returned to quiet levels after 14/2100 UTC as the CME/CH HSS influences subsided.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels on day one (15 May) in reaction to anticipated CME effects. Conditions on day two (16 May) are likely to reach G2 storm levels, with a chance for G3 (Strong) conditions due to expected reactions from another CME. Day three (17 may) is likely to experience up to G1 storm levels, with continuing chance for G2 conditions in response to yet another CME.

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