[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Aug 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Aug 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 05-07 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels on 05-07 Aug, all as a result of CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased to a maximum of 600 km/s. Total field reached 23 nT while the Bz component had sustained periods of southward orientation, with a maximum deflection of -21 nT. The phi angle was predoninantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through the forecast period (05-07 Aug) due to CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels late in the period due to the onset of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm conditions are likely on 05 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. G1 (Minor) storm levels are also likely for 06 Aug. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 07 Aug as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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