[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Aug 12 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Aug 12 0624 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 August 2019

Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 05 Aug and at high levels from 06-11 Aug. The largest flux of the period was 26,161 pfu observed at 07/1930 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels over the period. The period began as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) was becoming geoeffective. Total field increased to 23 nT by 05/0855 UTC as the Bz component became variable between +11 nT/-19 nT. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 745 km/s at 06/0750 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with four consecutive periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Aug followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 06 Aug. Two further enhancements in solar wind speed were observed on 08 Aug and on 09-10 Aug. The first peaked around 575 km/s while the second peaked at approximately 650 km/s. However, no significant increases in total field were observed. Quiet conditions were observed on 07 Aug with quiet to unsettled levels on 08-11 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 August - 07 September 2019

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the forecast period (12 Aug-07 Sep).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on12-16 Aug and again on 02-07 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled levels on 12 Aug, 16 Aug, 26-28 Aug, and 06-07 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01-02 Sep with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 01 Sep also due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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